Shuga yakachena
Shuga yakasvibirira inokatyamadza tsigiro yemumba
Shuga yakasvibirira yakachinja zvishoma nezuro, yakawedzerwa netarisiro yekudzikira kwekugadzirwa kweshuga yekuBrazil. Kondirakiti huru yakakwira pa14.77 cents paundi uye yakawira ku14.54 cents papound. Mutengo wekupedzisira wekuvhara kwechibvumirano chikuru chakasimuka 0.41% kuvhara pa 14.76 cents paundi. Goho reshuga munzvimbo huru dzinorimwa nzimbe pakati nekumaodzanyemba kweBrazil richaderera kusvika kuderera kwemakore matatu mugore rinotevera. Nekuda kwekushaikwa kwekusima patsva, goho renzimbe pachikamu chimwe chete richaderedzwa uye kugadzirwa kwe ethanol kuchawedzerwa. Kingsman anofungidzira kuti kugadzirwa kweshuga pakati uye kumaodzanyemba kweBrazil muna 2018-19 ndeye 33.99 mamiriyoni ematani. Zvinopfuura 90% yeChina yekugadzirwa kweTangtang pakati nekumaodzanyemba kweBrazil. Iyi nhanho yekugadzirwa kweshuga inoreva kuderera kwegore-pagore kwematani emamiriyoni e2.1 uye ichava yakaderera kubva pamamiriyoni e31.22 mamiriyoni muna 2015-16. Nekune rimwe divi, nhau dzekusiiwa kweState Reserve kutengeswa kwakagayiwa zvishoma nezvishoma nemusika. Kunyange zvazvo mutengo weshuga wakaderera zvakare mukati mezuva, yakawanazve nzvimbo yayo yakanga yarasika pakupera kwamasikati. Tichitarisa kune ruzivo rwemamwe marudzi, isu tinotenda kuti kutengeswa kwematura hakuzokanganisa maitiro epakati-temu emusika. Kune vepakati uye venguva pfupi vatengesi, vanogona kumirira kuti mutengo ugadzikane uye vatenge 1801 kontrakiti pachibvumirano. Kana iri sarudzo yekudyara, mushambadzi wenzvimbo anogona kuita yakavharwa sarudzo portfolio yekushambadzira kutengesa zvishoma yekufungidzira kufona sarudzo pahwaro hwekubata nzvimbo munguva pfupi. Mumakore 1-2 anotevera, kushanda kweiyo yakavharwa sarudzo portfolio inogona kushandiswa sekusimudzira kwemari inowanikwa. Zvichakadaro, kune vanoisa mari yakakosha, vanogona zvakare kutenga chaiyo yekufona sarudzo nemitengo yekurovedza ye6300 kusvika 6400, Kana mutengo weshuga wakwira kuita kuti sarudzo ive chaiyo kukosha, unogona kuvhara iyo yekufona sarudzo nemutengo wakaderera wekurovedza muviri munhanho yekutanga uye. ramba uchitenga kutenderera kutsva kweiyo chaiyo yekufona sarudzo (kufona sarudzo nemutengo wekudzidzira we6500 kana 6600), uye zvishoma nezvishoma sarudza mukana wekumisa purofiti kana mutengo weshuga wasvika kupfuura 6600 yuan / tani.
Cotton uye shinda yekotoni

Donje reUS rakaramba richidonha, dzvinyiriro yedonje yemumba
Ramangwana redonje rechando rakaramba richiderera nezuro sezvo kushushikana pamusoro pekukuvadzwa kwedonje kwakakonzerwa neHurricane Maria kwakadzikira uye musika wakamirira kukohwewa kwedonje. Iyo huru ICE1 Kukadzi donje yakadonha 1.05 masendi / pound kusvika 68.2 masendi paundi. Zvinoenderana neazvino data yeUSDA, muvhiki yaGunyana 14, 2017/18, US donje mambure akabatana 63100 matani, nemwedzi pamwedzi kuwedzera kwe47500 matani, uye gore negore kuwedzera kwe14600 matani; kutumirwa kwe41100 matani, mwedzi pamwedzi kuwedzera kwe15700 matani, gore negore kuwedzera kwe3600 matani, achiverengera 51% yehuwandu hunofungidzirwa kunze kwenyika (USDA munaGunyana), iyo iri 9% yakakwirira kupfuura makore mashanu. kukosha kwepakati. Kudivi repamba, zhengmian neshinda yekotoni yaive pasi pekumanikidzwa, uye yekupedzisira 1801 chibvumirano chedonje chakavharwa Chipo chaive 15415 yuan / ton, pasi 215 yuan / ton. Kondirakiti yeshinda yedonje ya1801 yakavharwa pa23210 yuan / ton, pasi pe175 yuan / ton. Panyaya yekutenderera kwedonje rekuchengetera, matani 30024 akaunzwa pazuva rechina resvondo rino, uye iyo chaiyo transaction volume yaive 29460 matani, ine mutengo wekutengesa we98.12%. Avhareji mutengo wekutengesa wakadzikira ne124 yuan / ton kusvika 14800 yuan / tani. Musi waGunyana 22, vhoriyamu yakarongwa yekutenderera yaive 26800 matani, kusanganisira 19400 matani eXinjiang donje. Mitengo yeSpot yakaramba yakasimba uye yakasimuka zvishoma, iine CC index 3128b kutengeserana pa15974 yuan / ton, kumusoro 2 yuan / toni kubva pazuva rapfuura rekutengesa. Indekisi yemitengo ye32 Combed Yarns yaive 23400 yuan / ton uye iyo ye40 Combed Yarns yaive 26900 yuan / ton. Mushoko rimwe, donje reAmerica rakaramba richidonha, uye maruva matsva epamba akarongwa zvishoma nezvishoma. Zheng cotton yakakanganiswa neizvi munguva pfupi uye yakaramba iine mhirizhonga pakati uye nguva yekupedzisira. Vagadziri vemari vanogona kutenga zvishoma nezvishoma pamabhagaini mushure mekunge rombo rakashata redonje reAmerica ragayiwa. Panguva imwecheteyo, ichangoburwa shinda yeshinda yakasimbiswa zvishoma nezvishoma, tinogona kumirira shinda yekotoni kuti igadzikane, asi zvakare zvishoma nezvishoma kutenga pane kutengeserana.
Chikafu chebhinzi

Kuita kwakasimba kweUS soya bhinzi kunze kwenyika
CBOT soya beans yakasimuka zvishoma nezuro, ichivhara pa970.6 cents / PU, asi iyo yakazara ichiri mubhokisi rebhokisi kuvhunduka. Mushumo wevhiki nevhiki wekutengesa kunze kwenyika waiva wakanaka. Musvondo rapfuura, huwandu hwekutengesa kunze kwenyika kwebhinzi dzeUS hwaive matani 2338000, akakwira zvakanyanya kupfuura fungidziro yemusika yematani 1.2-1.5 miriyoni. Zvichakadaro, USDA yakazivisa kuti vatengesi vakazvimiririra vakatengesa matani 132000 esoya beans kuChina. Parizvino, musika uri kutamba mutambo pakati pegoho repamusoro uye kudiwa kwakasimba. Kubva Svondo rapfuura, chiyero chekukohwa chaive 4%, uye yakanakisa uye yakanaka mwero yaive 1% kusvika 59% yakaderera pane svondo rapfuura. Mhedzisiro yakaipa yegoho guru inotarisirwa, uye kuenderera mberi kwakasimba kudiwa kuchatsigira mutengo. Kuenzaniswa neyakapfuura, isu tine tarisiro pamusoro pemusika. Pamusoro pezvo, nekumhara kwekugadzira kweUS, iyo inozotarisisa zvishoma nezvishoma ichienda kuSouth America soyabhinzi yekudyara nekukura, uye dingindira rekufungidzira richawedzera. Pakanga pane shanduko shoma murutivi rwepamba. Soybean masheya mumachiteshi uye mafekitori emafuta akadonha svondo rapfuura, asi ivo vaive vachiri padanho repamusoro munguva imwechete yenhoroondo. Vhiki rapfuura, chiyero chekutanga chemafuta chirimwa chakawedzera kusvika ku58.72%, uye avhareji yemazuva ese yekutengesa huwandu hwekudya soya yakawedzera kubva ku115000 matani svondo rapfuura kusvika 162000 matani. Chikafu chesoya bean chekudya chemafuta chakanga chaderera kwemavhiki matanhatu akatevedzana zvisati zvaitika, asi zvakadzoka zvishoma vhiki yapfuura, zvichikwira kubva pa824900 toni kusvika ku837700 tons kubva munaSeptember 17. Chigadzirwa chemafuta chinotarisirwa kuramba chichishanda pamwero wepamusoro vhiki ino nekuda. kune purofiti yakakura uye gadziriro zuva renyika risati rasvika. Vhiki rino, huwandu hwekutengesa uye kuendesa panzvimbo yakawedzera zvakanyanya. Nezuro, huwandu hwekutengesa kwehupfu hwesoya hwaive matani 303200, avhareji mutengo wekutengesa waive 2819 (+ 28), uye vhoriyamu yekuendesa yaive 79400 matani. Zvinotarisirwa kuti hupfu hwesoya hucharamba huchitevera soya yeUS kune rimwe divi, uye hwaro hucharamba hwakagadzikana padanho riripo panguva ino.
Soybean mafuta mafuta

Commodity yakaderera mafuta kugadzirisa
Soya bhinzi dzemuUS kazhinji dzakachinja-chinja uye dzakasimuka zvishoma nezuro, zvichienderana nekudiwa kwakasimba kwebhinzi dzekuUS kunze kwenyika. Mushure mechinguva chidiki chekugadzirisa musika, kudiwa kwakasimba kweUS kuchaitawo kuderedza kuwedzera kwekupedzisira kweiyo balance sheet inventory uye warehouse kuhuwandu hwekushandisa, uye mutengo unogona kuramba usina kusimba kusvika yakaderera nguva yekukohwa mwaka. Ma pan akadonha nezuro. Izvo zvakabuda munaGunyana, kusanganisira iyo yakazotevera nguva, inotarisirwa kupora nekukurumidza. Kubva 1 kusvika 15 ye9, Ma palm export yakawedzera ne20% mwedzi pamwedzi, uye huwandu hwekutumira kuIndia uye subcontinent hwakaramba. Uku kutenderera kwekusimuka kweMalay kwave kwakakwirisa. Kana iyo yakabuda yadzoreredza mune yakazotevera nhanho, Ma pani ichave neyakagadziriswa yakakura. Zvinhu zvemumba hazvina kunyanya kushanduka. Nhamba yemafuta emichindwe i360000 matani, uye mafuta esoya matani 1.37 miriyoni. Kugadzirira kwezvitoro zvemitambo kwapinda muchikamu chekupedzisira, uye vhoriyamu yekutengeserana yakaderera zvishoma nezvishoma. Muchikamu chekupedzisira, kusvika kwemafuta emichindwe muHong Kong kunowedzera zvishoma nezvishoma, uye kudzvinyirira kunobuda zvishoma nezvishoma. Ramangwana rezvigadzirwa rakaramba richiderera nezuro, mhepo pfupi yakapfuurira, uye mafuta akatevera kupera simba. Mukushanda, zvinokurudzirwa kumirira uye kuona mamiriro emusika. Mushure mokunge njodzi yasunungurwa zvachose, tinogona kufunga nezvekupindira kwemafuta emiriwo ane nheyo dzakasimba. Pamusoro pezvo, hwaro hwemafuta emichindwe hwakadzikira mushure mekuramba kuchikwira, uye kukosha kwemafuta ebhinzi kwaivewo padanho repamusoro. Muchikamu chekupedzisira, chiyero chekudzorera goho chakakurumidza, uye Mapan aivewo mukugadzirisa. Mukutaura kwearbitrage, kupindira panguva yakakodzera mukupararira kwemutengo webhinzi yemichindwe kana yemichindwe yemiriwo inogona kutariswa.
Chibage uye starch

Futures mitengo yakawedzera zvishoma
Mutengo wechibage wepamba wakagadzikana uye wakadonha, pakati peiyo mutengo wekutenga chibage chakadzika mabhizinesi ekuNorth China yakaramba ichidonha, nepo yemamwe matunhu yakaramba yakagadzikana; mutengo we starch waiwanzogadzikana, uye vamwe vagadziri vakaderedza makotesheni avo ne20-30 yuan / ton. Panyaya yenhau dzemusika, iyo starch inventory ye29 deep-processing enterprises + ports iyo Tianxia granary inotarisa pakutevera yakakwira kusvika ku176900 matani kubva ku161700 matani vhiki yapfuura; musi waSeptember 21, sub loan uye sub repayment chirongwa chaiva kutengeserana 48970 matani zvenguva okuchengetera chibage muna 2013, uye chaiyo kutengeserana vhoriyamu aiva 48953 matani, ane avhareji kutengeserana mutengo 1335 yuan; chirongwa chekutengesa chakaitwa cheChina National Grain Storage Company Limited yakaronga kutengesa matani 903801 echibage chekuchengetera chibage muna 2014, iine vhoriyamu chaiyo ye755459 matani uye mutengo wepakati wekutengesa we1468 yuan. yakawedzera zvishoma pakupedzisira. Tichitarisa mberi kune danho rekupedzisira, tichifunga nezvemitengo yakakwira yekugadzirwa uye nzvimbo dzekutengesa dzinoenderana nemutengo wenguva refu wechibage, hazvikodzeri kudiwa chaiko uye kuzadza kudiwa kwechibage chitsva. Naizvozvo, isu tinochengeta a bearish mutongo; kana iri starch, tichitarisa kukanganiswa kwekuchengetedzwa kwezvakatipoteredza kuongorora kana kupera simba, pachava nekugadzirwa kutsva kwekugadzirwa kusati kwanyorwa uye mushure mekunyorwa kwechibage chitsva munguva inotevera. Isu tinotarisira kuti iyo yenguva refu yekupihwa uye kudiwa kuchaita kuvandudza. Yakasanganiswa netarisiro yemutengo wechibage uye inogona kupihwa rubatsiro rwekugadziriswa kwakadzama, isu tinotenda zvakare kuti mutengo weramangwana we starch wakawedzerawo. Muchiitiko ichi, isu tinokurudzira kuti vatengesi varambe vachibata chibage / sitachi isina pepa kana starch chibage mutengo wakapararira arbitrage portfolio mukutanga kwaNdira, uye kutora kupera kwaNyamavhuvhu kumusoro sekurasikirwa kwekumira.
zai

Spot mitengo inoramba ichidonha
Zvinoenderana nedata reZhihua, mutengo wemazai munyika yese wakaramba uchidonha, neavhareji mutengo munzvimbo huru dzekugadzira inodonha ne0.04 yuan / Jin uye mutengo wepakati munzvimbo huru dzekutengesa uchidonha ne0.13 yuan / Jin. Trade monitoring inoratidza kuti vatengesi vari nyore kugamuchira zvinhu uye vanononoka kufambisa zvinhu. Mamiriro ose ekutengeserana akavandudzwa zvishoma kana achienzaniswa nezuva rapfuura. Nhamba yevatengesi yakaderera, uye inoramba ichikwira zvishoma kana ichienzaniswa nezuva rapfuura. Vatengesi 'bearish tarisiro yakaderera, kunyanya muEast China uye kumaodzanyemba kwakadziva kumadokero kweChina Bearish tarisiro yakasimba. Mutengo wemazai wakaramba uchiderera mangwanani, wakadzoka zvishoma nezvishoma masikati, uye wakavhara zvakanyanya. Panyaya yemutengo wekuvhara, kontrakiti muna Ndira yakakwira ne95 yuan, chibvumirano muna Chivabvu chakawedzera ne45 yuan, uye chibvumirano munaGunyana chaive chave pedyo. Kubva pakuongororwa kwemusika, tinogona kuona kuti mutengo wemazai wakaramba uchidonha zvakanyanya munguva pfupi iri kutevera sezvakarongwa, uye kuderera kwemutengo weramangwana kunenge kushoma pane iyo yemutengo wenzvimbo, uye mutengo wemberi wakatendeuka. kupinda mubhadharo, izvo zvinoratidza kuti tarisiro yemusika yachinja, kureva, kubva pane tarisiro inoratidza kudonha kwemutengo wenzvimbo yakakwira munguva yakapfuura kune tarisiro yekukwira pamberi peChirimo Mutambo munguva inotevera. Kubva pakuona kwekuita kwemusika, musika unogona kutarisirwa kunge uri pamusoro pe4000 senzvimbo yepasi yemutengo waNdira. Muchiitiko ichi, zvinokurudzirwa kuti vatengesi vamirire uye vaone.
Rarama nguruve

Ramba uchidonha
Zvinoenderana nedata rezhuyi.com, avhareji mutengo wenguruve mhenyu yaive 14.38 yuan / kg, 0.06 yuan / kg yakaderera kupfuura zuva rapfuura. Mutengo wenguruve wakaramba uchidonha pasina kukurukurirana. Takagamuchira nhau mangwanani ano kuti mutengo wekutenga wemabhizinesi ekuuraya wakaderera ne0.1 yuan / kg. Mutengo muNortheast China wakapaza ne7, uye mutengo mukuru i14 yuan / kg. Mutengo wenguruve muEast China wakadzikira, uye mutengo wenguruve mune mamwe matunhu kunze kweShandong waive uchiri pamusoro pe14.5 yuan / kg. Henan muCentral China akatungamira kuderera, pasi 0.15 yuan / kg. Madziva maviri akagadzikana kwenguva pfupi, uye mutengo wepakati i14.3 yuan / kg. MuSouth China, mutengo wakadonha ne0.1 yuan / kg, mutengo weGuangdong neGuangxi waive 14.5 yuan / kg, uye Hainan yaive 14 yuan / kg. Maodzanyemba kwakadziva kumadokero akadonha 0.1 yuan / kg, Sichuan neChongqing 15.1 yuan / kg. Ngano yegoridhe, sirivheri negumi yakangodaro. Iko hakuna kutsigirwa kwakanaka kwemutengo wenguva pfupi. Ichokwadi kuti kune kuwedzera kwekutengesa. Mabhizinesi ekuuraya anotora mukana wemamiriro ezvinhu uye kuwedzera hakusi pachena. Zvinotarisirwa kuti mutengo wenguruve ucharamba uchidonha.
Energization
marasha emoto

Port spot deadlock, high price callback
Nekudzvinyirirwa kwenhau dzakadai seyakashata yakazara dema mhepo uye mutemo wakavakirwa kupa garandi, simba remarasha remangwana rakachinja zvakanyanya nezuro, nechibvumirano chikuru 01 ichivhara pa635.6 mukutengesa kwehusiku, uye mutsauko wemutengo uri pakati pe1-5 wakaderedzwa kusvika 56.4. Panyaya yemusika wenzvimbo, wakakanganiswa neiyo inotevera 19th National Congress yeCommunist Party yeChina, mimwe migodhi yakavhurika muShaanxi neShanxi yamisa kugadzirwa uye kuderedza kugadzirwa. Kunyangwe zvirambidzo zvekutanga zvinoputika zvakasimudzwa muInner Mongolia, kupihwa kwenzvimbo dzekugadzira kuchiri kusimba, uye mutengo wemarasha papithead unoramba uchikwira. Panyaya dzezviteshi, mutengo wemarasha pachiteshi uchiri padanho repamusoro. Nekuda kwemutengo wakakwira uye kutariswa kwenjodzi dzenguva refu dzemusika, vatengesi havafarire kutakura zvinhu, uye dhigirii yekugamuchirwa yemakambani ari pasi pemutengo wepamusoro wezvino haina kukwirira. Iyo Qinhuangdao 5500 kcal chiutsi marasha + 0-702 yuan / tani.

Panyaya iyi, National Development and Reform Commission nguva pfupi yadarika yakaburitsa chiziviso chekuona kutakurwa kwemarasha, magetsi, mafuta negasi, ichiti matunhu ese, matunhu anozvitonga nemaguta nemabhizinesi akakodzera anofanirwa kusimbaradza kutarisisa nekuongorora kugadzirwa kwemarasha. kudiwa kwekufambisa, kuwana nenguva uye kuronga kugadzirisa matambudziko akamira mukugovera, uye edza kuona kugadzikana kwemarasha pamberi uye mushure me19th National Congress yeCommunist Party yeChina.

Huwandu hwezviteshi zvekuchamhembe hwakadzokororwa, neavhareji yekutakura zuva nezuva yematani mazana mashanu nemazana mashanu nemazana mashanu, avhareji yekufambisa njanji muhuwandu hwematani mazana matanhatu nemakumi matanhatu nemazana matanhatu, nhamba yechiteshi che + 8-5.62 miriyoni matani, kuwanikwa kwechiteshi cheCaofeidian che - 30 kusvika 3.17 miriyoni matani, uye uwandu hweJingtang Port yeSDIC + 4 kusvika 1.08 miriyoni matani.

Nezuro, kushandiswa kwemazuva ese kwemagetsi emagetsi kwakawedzera. Mapoka matanhatu makuru emagetsi emahombekombe akadya 730000 matani emarasha, aine huwandu hwe9.83 miriyoni matani emarasha mudura uye 13.5 mazuva ekuchengetedza marasha.

China yemahombekombe marasha ekutakura indekisi yakakwira 0.01% kusvika 1172 nezuro
Pazere, misangano yakakosha kubva munaGunyana kusvika Gumiguru uye kuchengetedzwa kwezvakatipoteredza / chengetedzo yenzvimbo dzekugadzira inogona kuramba ichirambidza kuburitswa kwekupa. Kunyangwe kushandiswa kwemazuva ese kwezvidyarwa zvemagetsi kwakadzikira, kuchiri padanho repamusoro, uye tsigiro yenzvimbo yakasimba. Pamusika weramangwana, kondirakiti 01 inoenderana nemwaka wekupisa wekupisa, asi kune kumanikidzwa kuisa mukutsiva simba munguva, uye kudzvanywa kwepamusoro kunooneka. Isu tinofanirwa kutarisisa kumamiriro ekunze emusika wakatenderedza, kudonha kwehuwandu hwekushandisa zuva nezuva uye kuburitswa kwepamusoro kugadzirwa kwesimba.
PTA

Kugadzirwa kwepolyester uye kushambadzira kazhinji, PTA isina simba kushanda
Nezuro, mamiriro ezvinhu ose ezvigadzirwa akanga asina kunaka, PTA yakanga isina simba, uye chibvumirano chikuru che01 chakavharwa pa5268 mukutengesa kweusiku, uye mutengo wepakati pakati pe1-5 wakawedzera kusvika 92. Kutengeswa kwemusika kune vhoriyamu yakakura, vatengesi vemazuva ano vanonyanya kutengesa. tenga zvinhu zvenzvimbo, mamwe mafekitori epolyester agamuchira maodha, hwaro hwemusika huri kuramba huchiderera. Mukati mezuva, nzvimbo huru uye 01 Kondirakiti yakataurirana hwaro hwekutengeserana pamutengo wakaderera 20-35, risiti yekuchengetera uye 01 chibvumirano chinopihwa pamutengo wemakumi matatu; masikati, 5185-5275 yakatorwa, 5263-5281 yakaunzwa kune kutengeserana, uye 5239 receipt yekuchengetera yakatengeswa.

Nezuro, PX quotation yakadzokera shure mukuvhunduka, uye CFR yakapiwa ku847 USD / T (- 3) usiku hwose muAsia, uye mubhadharo wekugadzirisa wakanga uri pedyo ne850. PX yakashuma 840 USD / T munaOctober uye 852 USD / T munaNovember. Mune ramangwana, PX yemumba inogona kubviswa, asi haitarisirwe kunge isisina.

Panyaya yePTA chirimwa, nguva yekugadziriswa kweseti yePTA chirimwa chine gore negore kuburitsa 1.5 miriyoni matani muJiangsu Province yakawedzerwa neanenge mazuva mashanu; ngarava yekutanga PX yePTA bhizinesi muHuabin No.1 mutsara wekugadzira wasvika muHong Kong nguva pfupi yadarika, asi nyaya dzekuchengetera tangi hadzisati dzaitwa zvizere, uye zvinotarisirwa zvinotarisirwa kutanga munaNovember; bhizinesi rePTA muFujian Province rakasaina chibvumirano chekugadzirisa, uye danho rekutanga rinogona kukurumidza kubva ipapo, uye chirongwa chekutanga ndechekutangazve kutanga kwechikamu chesimba rekugadzira muchikamu chechina.

Kudivi rezasi, kugadzirwa kwese uye kutengesa kweJiangsu neZhejiang polyester yarn yakanga ichiri muhuwandu nezuro, neavhareji inofungidzirwa pa60-70% panguva dza3:30 pm; kutengeswa kwepolyester yakananga yakananga, uye yakadzika yaingoda kuzadzazve, mazhinji ekugadzirwa uye kutengesa kwaive kwakatenderedza 50-80%.

Pakazere, PTA chirimwa chekuchengetedza kubva munaGunyana kusvika Gumiguru, yakasanganiswa nepolyester yakaderera inventory uye yakakwira mutoro, yenguva pfupi yekugovera uye yekuda chimiro ichiri kutsigirwa. Nekudaro, kune ramangwana chibvumirano 01, rutsigiro rwePX padivi remutengo rwakanga rusina simba muchikamu chechina. Pasi pekumanikidzwa kubva munaNovember kusvika kuDecember yezvishandiso zvayo zvitsva uye zvekare, zvakanga zvakaoma kuchengetedza mari yepamusoro yekugadzirisa, uye PTA callback pressure yakaramba iripo. Isu tinofanirwa kutarisisa mamiriro ekunze emusika wezvigadzirwa, kudzika kwepolyester kugadzirwa uye kutengesa & shanduko yezvinyorwa uye mitengo yemafuta epasi rose.
Tianjiao

Shanghai Rubber 1801 inogona kudzikama munguva pfupi
Kana iri ichangoburwa kuderera (1) 1801 mutengo wakapararira kudzoreredzwa kwakanaka, data kubva muna Nyamavhuvhu raive rakaderera pane tarisiro refu, zvichiratidza kushaikwa kwekuda kwezvinzvimbo zvipfupi (2) dhizaini repadivi rakapera simba. (3) Muindasitiri yerabha, ruzhinji rwezvinzvimbo zvipfupi mudhisiki dhisiki, zvisiri-standard seti, matatu maitiro kune akafanana, zvichiita kuti 11 mazuva ekutengesa adzokere ku800 points. 2. Nenguva pfupi, ndinofunga kuti 14500-15000 ichagara uye ichidzoka kuti ione iyo yose yezvigadzirwa zvemabhizimisi uye yakasviba.

PE?

Mutambo usati waitwa, kudiwa kwekugadzirira kwezvinhu kuchiri kuda kuburitswa, uye mukati nekunze kurembera kumusoro kuri kuwedzera & macro uye commodity mamiriro ekunze anoshanduka asina simba, uye kuchine kudzvanywa munguva pfupi.

Musi waGunyana 21, iyo LLD ex fekitori mutengo weSinopec kuNorth China, East China, pakati peChina, PetroChina, East China, South China, Maodzanyemba akadziva kumadokero kweChina neNorthwest China yakaderedzwa ne50-200 yuan / ton, uye musika wakaderera. mutengo muNorth China wakadzokera ku9350 yuan / tani (marasha kemikari indasitiri). Parizvino, l1801 litre yemvura muNorth China yakatengeswa ku170 yuan / T. mutengo wefekitari wezvirimwa zvepetrochemical wakaderedzwa munzvimbo huru. Paiva nevatengesi vakawanda kuti vatumire zvinhu pamutengo wemusika wakapindurwa, uye chinangwa chepasi chekugamuchira chakanga chiri chese, Zvisinei, kudiwa kwezvinhu zvisingadhuri kwakawedzera, uye kudzvinyirira kune rumwe rutivi kunoramba kuripo; uyezve, munaGunyana 20, iyo CFR Far East yakaderera-yekupedzisira mutengo wakaenzana neRMB 9847 / T, musika wekunze wakarembera wakatarisa pasi kusvika ku327 yuan / T, uye mutengo wenzvimbo uchiri wakadzika kusvika ku497 yuan / T. tsigiro yekunze icharamba ichikanganisa huwandu hwekupinza muna Gumiguru; maererano nemusiyano wemutengo wezvigadzirwa zvine hukama, mutsauko wemutengo pakati pehd-lld neld-lld i750 yuan / T uye 650 yuan / T zvichiteerana, uye zvigadzirwa zvine hukama neplate Face pressure inoramba ichireruka, isiri-standard arbitrage. mikana ichiri mishoma. Pakazara, kubva pakuona kwekupararira kwemitengo, kutsigirwa kunokwanisa kwemisika yekunze kwakasimbiswa, kudzvanywa kwezvigadzirwa zvine hukama kwaramba kuchidzikama, uye kudzvanywa kuri padivi kwakadzikira zvishoma nezvishoma nekudonha kwemitengo. Kunyangwe kudonha kwakanyanya kwemitengo yeramangwana kuri kuramba kuchidzora kudiwa kwenguva pfupi nekuda kwekuderedzwa kwechiyero cheUS Federal Reserve uye kupera simba kwemamiriro ekunze ezvekutengesa, kudiwa kwezvinhu zvakagadzirirwa zororo kungangoburitswa.

Kubva pakuona kwekugovera uye kudiwa, PetroChina's inventory yakaramba ichidonha kusvika kumativi e700000 matani nezuro, uye petrochemicals yakaramba ichitengesa purofiti kune zvinyorwa pamberi pemutambo. Pamusoro pezvo, kuburitswa kwepakati kwekutanga hedging consolidation spot, pamwe nekupera simba kwemazuva ano kwehukuru uye commodity atmosphere, kwakawedzera kumanikidzwa kwenguva pfupi. Nekudaro, izvi zvakaipa zvinokonzeresa zvichange zvichigayiwa zvishoma nezvishoma mukuderera kwemutengo wekutanga. Mukuwedzera, pane chido chekugadzirira zvinhu pamberi pemutambo muzasi kwemvura munguva yemberi iri pedyo Mushure mekudzikamisa, mukana wekuda uchaonekwa. Uye zvakare, iyo yemukati neyekunze inversion ichawedzerwa, kudzvanywa kwezvinhu zvisiri-yakajairwa kunozorerutswa, uye kudzvanywa kwenzvimbo kunozogayiwa zvishoma nezvishoma nemusika, uye pachine mukana wekuti kudiwa kunotora zvakare mukati. nguva yakazotevera (chengeta pamberi pemutambo). Naizvozvo, zvinokurudzirwa kuti isu timirire mukana wechiedza chekuchengetedza imba pamberi pemutambo uye tibate nzvimbo pfupi nekungwarira mukutanga. Inofungidzirwa kuti iyo huru L1801 mutengo wemhando ndeye 9450-9650 yuan / tani.

PP?

Macro nemamiriro ekunze akadzikira, mudziyo unotangazve kudzvanywa & tsigiro yekusiyanisa mutengo, kudiwa kwemasheya, PP kungwarira kusarura.

Musi waGunyana 21, mitengo yefekitari yekare yeSinopec North China, South China nePetroChina South China matunhu yakaderedzwa ne200 yuan / ton, mutengo wakaderera wemusika muEast China wakaramba uchidzika kusvika pa8500 yuan / ton, kukwira kwemutengo. yepp1801 paEast China nzvimbo yakaderedzwa kusvika 110 yuan / T, mutengo weramangwana waive pasi pekumanikidzwa, vatengesi vakawedzera kutakurwa kwekutakura, madhiri ezasi aingoda kutenga, mutengo wakaderera wakagayiwa, uye kudzvinyirirwa kwenzvimbo kwakadzikiswa. mutengo wekupedzisira wakaramba uchikwira kusvika ku8100 yuan / ton, mutengo wepoda wekutsigira waive wakapoteredza 8800 yuan / tani, uye hupfu hwakanga husina pundutso, saka imwe rutsigiro yaizoratidzwa zvishoma nezvishoma. Uye zvakare, munaGunyana 20, iyo CFR Far East yakaderera-yekunze mutengo weRMB mutengo wakaderera zvishoma kusvika ku9233 yuan / ton, pp1801 yakadzoserwa ku623 yuan / ton, uye stock iripo yakadzoserwa ku733 yuan / tani. Iwindo rekutumira kunze rakavhurwa, uye rubatsiro rwekunze runoramba ruchisimbisa. Kubva pakuona kwekupararira kwemutengo, hwaro hunoramba hushoma, kugoverwa kwezvinhu kunosimbiswa, uye nzvimbo yacho inodzokera shure, iyo inodzvinyirira musika. Munguva pfupi iri kutevera, vatengesi vakawedzerawo basa ravo rekutumira, uye dzvinyiriro yenguva pfupi yakawedzera. Nekudaro, nekugadziriswa kwemutengo, iyo aftermarket kudzvanywa inogona kudzikiswa zvishoma nezvishoma, uye kudzika kwemvura kuda kugamuchira zvinhu kwawedzera. Mukuwedzera, zvose mapaneti uye nzvimbo yakaramba ichirembera pasi pamusika wekunze nemuganhu mukuru, uye pani iri zvakare pedyo nePowder panzvimbo yekutsigira, chiito chose chinogona kuderedzwa, uye kutsigirwa kwekusiyanisa kwemitengo kunosimbiswawo. .

Kubva pamaonero ekupa uye kudiwa, mwero wekuchengetedza wePP chirimwa wakagadziriswa kwechinguva kusvika 14.55% uye chiyero chekudhirowa chakagadziriswa kwechinguva kusvika 28.23% nezuro. Nekudaro, Shenhua Baotou, Shijiazhuang Refinery uye Haiwei Petrochemical Co., Ltd. vane hurongwa hwekutangazve munguva pfupi iri kutevera. Mukuwedzera, hutsva hwekugadzira huchabudiswa zvishoma nezvishoma (Ningmei chikamu III, Yuntianhua (600096, Uyezve, panguva ino, nheyo ichiri yakaderera, uye kugoverwa kwezvinhu zvakagadziriswa muchibvumirano che 01 zvishoma nezvishoma zvakadzokera panzvimbo. chikamu ichi chekumanikidzwa chave chichigayiwa nekudonha kwemutengo Munguva pfupi yapfuura, kudiwa kwekuruka kwepurasitiki kwave kuchikwira pamwero wakaderera the 11th Festival Parizvino, PP icharamba iine kumanikidzika kune imwe nzvimbo Ramba uchichera mutambo pakati pemwaka rebound yekuda uye kugaya, saka dhisiki yenguva pfupi kana kuchenjerera kwenguva pfupi, ichitarisa kutsigirwa kwekuda kupora. , mukati nekunze kumusoro pasi uye poda inotsiva Inofungidzirwa kuti yemazuva ano pp1801 mutengo we8500-8650 yuan / ton.
methanol

MEG yakadonha, olefin purofiti yakaderera & Discount nzvimbo, nzvimbo yekugadzira yakasimba, methanol ipfupi kungwarira

Spot: musi waGunyana 21, mutengo wenzvimbo yemethanol wakasimuka ukadonha mumwe nemumwe, iyo, iyo yakaderera-yekupedzisira mutengo weTaicang yaive 2730 yuan / ton, iyo nzvimbo mutengo weShandong, Henan, Hebei, Inner Mongolia uye kumaodzanyemba kwakadziva kumadokero kweChina yaive. 2670 (- 200), 2700 (- 200), 2720 (- 260), 2520 (- 500 kutakura zvinhu) uye 2750 (- 180 kutakura) yuan / ton, uye mutengo wakaderera wezvinhu zvinotengeswa munzvimbo yekugadzira waiva 2870- 3020 yuan / tani, uye kugadzirwa uye kushambadzira arbitrage hwindo rakavharwa zvachose 01 peya dzeTaicang dzakaramba dzakarembera kumusoro kusvika ku32 yuan / tani. Tichifunga nezve kuenderera kuvharwa kweiyo arbitrage hwindo rekugadzira uye kushambadzira, izvi pasina mubvunzo zvine tsigiro isina kunanga yechiteshi chechiteshi uye diski;

Musiyano wemutengo wemukati nekunze: munaGunyana 20, CFR China nzvimbo RMB mutengo wakadonha zvakare kusvika pa2895 yuan / tani (kusanganisira makumi mashanu ezviteshi zvakasiyana-siyana), ma801 inverted mutengo wekunze kuenda ku197 yuan / T, East China nzvimbo yakadzora mutengo wekunze kuenda ku165 yuan / T, uye kutsigirwa kwemusika wekunze kwenzvimbo yepamba uye diski yakasimbiswa.

Mutengo: mutengo wemarasha weOrdos (600295, chirwere chekuongorora) uye 5500 dakakou marasha muJining yeShandong Province yaive 391 uye 640 yuan / tani nezuro, uye mutengo unoenderana nepaneru pevhu waiva 2221 uye 2344 yuan / tani. Uye zvakare, iyo methanol mutengo weSichuan Chongqing gasi musoro waive 1830 yuan / tani muEast China, uye iyo yecoke oveni gasi muNorth China yaive 2240 yuan / tani muEast China;

Chinobuda chinodiwa: maererano nemari yekugadzira dhisiki, PP + MEG yakawira zvakare ku2437 yuan / ton, ichiri padanho repamusoro. Zvisinei, dhisiki uye nzvimbo yekugadzirisa mari ye pp-3 * ma yakawira zvakare ku570 uye 310 yuan / T. zuro, Meg's disk yakawira zvakanyanya, ichiwedzera kumanikidzwa kwakaunzwa nePP mukuvanza;

Pazere, mitengo yeramangwana yakaramba ichidzika zvakanyanya nezuro, kunyanya nekuda kwekuderedzwa kweMEG neFederal Reserve, zvichikonzera kudzika kwakadzika kwemamiriro ekunze ezvekutengesa. Uye zvakare, PP ichiri kutarisana nekumanikidzwa kwehutsva hwekugadzira huwandu, mudziyo unotangazve uye disk solidification nzvimbo inobuda munguva pfupi. Nekudaro, pane zviratidzo zvekurerutsirwa zvishoma nezvishoma kwekumanikidza kwakakosha, uye mutengo wenzvimbo uchiri wakasimba, nekuwedzera kwedhisiki yakavharwa nzvimbo, uye yakarongwa kupaka yemidziyo yeBrunei pamwe nerutsigiro rwakanaka mushure mekusimbiswa kwemagwaro ekutonga kwemugungwa, kuwanikwa kweEast China ports kwakawirawo pamwero wepamusoro svondo rino. Iko kuchenjerera kupfupika munguva pfupi, uye hazvikurudzirwe kudzingirira pfupi. Inofungidzirwa kuti mutengo wezuva nezuva wema801 ndeye 2680-2750 yuan / ton.
mafuta asina kuchena

Musika wakatarisa OPEC jmmc musangano wepamwedzi

Nhau dzemusika uye data yakakosha

WTI crude oil remangwana raNovember yakavhara pasi $0.14, kana 0.28%, kusvika $50.55/barrel. Brent's November crude oil futures yakakwira $0.14, kana 0.25%, kusvika $56.43/barrel. NYMEX Gumiguru peturu remangwana rakavharwa pamadhora 1.6438/gallon. NYMEX Gumiguru kupisa mafuta emangwana akavharwa pamadhora 1.8153/gallon.

2. Zvinonzi musangano wekutarisa kuderedzwa kwezvigadzirwa unotarisirwa kuitirwa muVienna na4:00 pm nguva yeBeijing neChishanu, inokokwa neKuwait uye ichapindwa nevakuru veVenezuela, Algeria, Russia nedzimwe nyika. Musangano uyu uchakurukura nyaya dzakaita sekuwedzera chibvumirano chekudzikisa kugadzirwa uye kutarisa kutengesa kunze kwenyika kuti vaone huwandu hwekuita kwekudzikisa, Reuters yakashuma. Nekudaro, mumiriri weOPEC akataura kuti parizvino, nyika dzese hadzisati dzasvika pakubvumirana pakuwedzera kwechibvumirano chekudzikisa zvigadzirwa, uye zvese zvinoramba zvichikurukurwa.

Gurukota rezvesimba reRussia: OPEC uye nyika dzisiri dzeOPEC dzichakurukura nyaya yemafuta asina kuchena kunze kwenyika kumusangano weVienna. Sekureva kwenhau dzemusika, OPEC technical Committee yakurudzira kuti makurukota enyika dzinogadzira oiri anofanirwa kutarisa kutengeswa kwemafuta asina kuchena kunze kwenyika sekuwedzera kuchibvumirano chekudzikisa kugadzirwa.

4. Goldman Sachs: zvinotarisirwa kuti hurukuro dzeOPEC hadzisi kuzowedzera chibvumirano chekuderedza kugadzirwa kwemafuta, asi yakakurumidza kuita mhedziso. Zvinotendwa kuti OPEC komiti yekudzora kugadzirwa kwemafuta haisi kuzokurudzira kuwedzera chibvumirano chekudzikisa kugadzirwa svondo rino. Izvo zvazvino zvakakosha zvakakosha zvinotsigira kudzokororwa kwaGoldman kwetarisiro yake yekuti kugoverwa kwemafuta kuchakwira kusvika pamadhora makumi mashanu nesere / dhiramu mukupera kwegore.

Tankertracker: OPEC crude oil exports inotarisirwa kudzikira ne140000 B / D kusvika 23.82 miriyoni B / D kubva muna Gumiguru 7.

L. mari yepfungwa

Munguva pfupi yapfuura, musika wakatarisa pamusangano wepamwedzi wejmmc weOPEC, uye nyaya dzakawanda dzinonyanya kutariswa nemusika ndeidzi: 1. Kana chibvumirano chekudzikisa zvigadzirwa chichawedzerwa; 2. Nzira yekusimbisa sei kushandiswa uye kutarisa kwechibvumirano chekuderedza kugadzirwa, uye kana zviratidzo zvekutengesa kunze zvichaongororwa; 3. Kana Nigeria neLibya vachabatana nechikwata chekudzikisa kugadzirwa. Kazhinji, nekuda kwekukosha kwekuchengetwa kwemafuta gore rino, OPEC inogona kusafunga nezvekuwedzera chibvumirano chekudzikisa kugadzirwa panguva iripo, asi hazvitaurwe kuti musangano wenguva pfupi uchaitwa muchikamu chekutanga chegore rinouya. wedzera kuderedzwa kwekugadzira. Isu tinofungidzira kuti musangano wejmmc nhasi uchataura nezvekusimbaradza kutarisisa nekuita kwekudzikisa zvigadzirwa. Nekudaro, kuchine matambudziko mazhinji ehunyanzvi anofanirwa kugadziriswa mukutariswa kwevhoriyamu yekunze. Parizvino, kugadzirwa kweNigeria neLibya hakuna kudzoserwa zvizere kune yakajairika nhanho, saka mukana wekuderedza kugadzirwa unogona kunge usina kukura.
asphalt

Commodity musika zvakazara pasi, nzvimbo yekutakura asphalt yakagadziridzwa
Muchidimbu Maonero:
Musika weramangwana remangwana wakaratidza kudzikira nezuro, nemarasha ekubikisa uye ferrosilicon ichidonha neinopfuura 5%, zvigadzirwa zvemakemikari zvinowanzodonha, methanol neinopfuura 4%, rabha nePVC neinopfuura 3%. Iyo chaiyo asphalt ramangwana yakaramba ichidzika maitiro mukati mezuva rekutengesa. Mutengo wekuvhara wekontrakiti huru 1712 nezuro masikati waiva 2438 yuan / ton, iyo yaiva 34 yuan / ton yakaderera kupfuura mutengo wekugadzirisa nezuro, nekuderera kwe1.38% 5500 maoko. Kudzikira uku kunonyanya kukanganiswa nemamiriro ekunze emusika wezvigadzirwa, uye hapasisinazve kuparara kweasphalt basics.

Musika wenzvimbo wakaramba wakagadzikana, nemitengo yepakati pe2400-2500 yuan / tani mumusika weEast China, 2350-2450 yuan / tani muShandong musika uye 2450-2550 yuan / tani muSouth China musika. Parizvino, mushure mekupera kwekutarisa kwezvakatipoteredza, kuvakwa kwemugwagwa wepasi kunodzorerwa zvishoma nezvishoma. Mushure mekupera kwekutarisa kwezvakatipoteredza muShandong, kutakura kwekunatsiridza kwave nani, uye nzvimbo yeEast China iri kupora zvishoma nezvishoma. Zvisinei, panguva ino, kune mvura yakawanda munzvimbo ino, uye huwandu hahuna kubudiswa. MuNorth China, vatengesi vanonyanya kushingaira mukugadzirira zvinhu pamberi pezororo reZuva reNyika, uye mamiriro ose ekutumira zvakanaka Mamiriro egasi akanaka, uye kutumirwa kwese kunenge kwakanyanyisa. Parizvino, nguva yekuvaka kuchamhembe kweChina ingangoita mwedzi mumwe kubva pakati kusvika pamazuva gumi ekupedzisira aGumiguru. Kukanganisa kwezvakatipoteredza pakuvaka migwagwa kunodzikira, uye panofanirwa kuve nekumhanyisa basa munguva pfupi iri kutevera kutsigira kudiwa kweasphalt. Nezororo reZuva reNyika richiswedera, mamiriro ezvitoro ari pakati peShandong, Hebei, kuchamhembe kwakadziva kumabvazuva nemamwe matunhu akadzirutsa zvishoma nezvishoma kudzvanywa kwezvicherwa. Padivi remutengo, iyo nzvimbo asphalt yave iri mune imwe nzvimbo. Mushure mekunge mutengo wemafuta asina kuchena wasimudzwa, purofiti yekunatsa yakadzikira ne110 yuan kusvika 154 yuan / ton svondo rapfuura, uye nzvimbo yekuwedzera kudzika kugadziridzwa kwemutengo wenzvimbo ishoma. Nekudaro, zvinofanirwa kucherechedzwa kuti nekuda kwekukanganisa kwekuchengetedza kwezvakatipoteredza zvinhu padivi rekudiwa uye kutonga kwekusvibiswa kwemhepo munguva yechando, kudiwa kweramangwana kunogona kunge kuri kushoma pane yaitarisirwa. Pamusoro pezvo, pakupera kwegore rino, huwandu hwekugadzira asphalt kukwenenzverwa mumatunhu akasiyana huchawedzerwa zvakanyanya, uye kugona kwekugadzira asphalt kunatswa kuchawedzerwa zvakanyanya.

Pakati pese, kana zvichienzaniswa nekudiwa kweasphalt mumwaka wepamusoro pechinyakare, pane nzvimbo shoma yekuwedzera kuderera. Zvinotarisirwa kuti nekudzoreredzwa kwekuvakwa kwezasi kwemvura mune ramangwana, pachava neimwe nzvimbo yekukura.

Mazano ehurongwa:
2500 yuan mutengo, kutengeserana kureba, teerera kune pamwedzi mutengo musiyano shanduko.

Strategic risk:
Kugadzirwa kweasphalt kwakawandisa, uye kuwanikwa kwapera kuburitswa, uye mutengo wemafuta epasi rose unochinja zvakanyanya.

Quantitative options
Kutengeswa kwakakura kwehupfu hwesoya kunogona kumira zvishoma nezvishoma kuhwina, uye kushanduka kweshuga kunokwira
Sarudzo dzekudya kwesoya

Sechibvumirano chikuru muna Ndira, mutengo wenguva yemberi yesoya bean wakaramba uchichinja-chinja musi waGunyana 21, uye mutengo wezuva nezuva wakavharwa pa2741 yuan / ton. Huwandu hwekutengesa uye chinzvimbo chezuva chaive 910000 uye 1880000, zvichiteerana.

Nhamba yekutengeserana yezvokudya zvesoya yakaramba yakagadzikana nhasi, nehuwandu hwekutengesa kwemaoko e11300 (unilateral, yakafanana pazasi), uye nzvimbo ye 127700. MunaJanuary, vhoriyamu yekontrakiti yakaverengera 73% yezvese chibvumirano chekutengesa uye chinzvimbo chakaverengerwa. ye70% yezvinzvimbo zvese zvekondirakiti. Iyo unilateral chinzvimbo muganho wesoyabean yekudya sarudzo yakadzoreredzwa kubva pa300 kusvika 2000, uye chiitiko chemusika chekutengesa chakawedzera zvakanyanya. Huyero yehupfu hwesoya bean yakaisa sarudzo vhoriyamu yekudaidza sarudzo vhoriyamu yakasimudzwa kuenda ku 0.52, uye chiyero chekuisa sarudzo chinzvimbo chekudaidza sarudzo yakachengetedzwa pa 0.63, uye manzwiro akaramba asina kwaakarerekera uye aine tariro. Zvinotarisirwa kuti musika uchachengeta yakamanikana huwandu hweoscillation pamberi pezuva renyika.

Mushure mekuburitswa kweUSDA yemwedzi nemwedzi wekupa uye kudiwa kweshumo, chirevo chekushomeka kwakaramba kuchidzikira. Muna Ndira, mutengo wekushandisa wesoya bhinzi sarudzo flat value kondirakiti yakaenda ku2750, iyo inonzi volatility yakaramba ichidzika kusvika 16.94%, uye mutsauko uripo pakati pekusagadzikana kwemazuva makumi matanhatu enhoroondo yekusagadzikana kwakawedzera kusvika - 1.83%. Mushure mekuburitswa kweUSDA yemwedzi nemwedzi yekupihwa uye yekudiwa mushumo munaGunyana, mamiriro aireva kushanduka kubva mukusagadzikana kwenhoroondo anogona kusvika kumagumo, uye mutengo wedhisiki unotarisirwa kuchengetedza kushanduka kudiki, uye kushanduka kunenge kuri padanho rakaderera. . Zvinokurudzirwa kuti chinzvimbo cheyakafara-span sarudzo (m1801-c-2800 uye m1801-p-2600) inogona kutengeswa nhanho nenhanho kudzivirira njodzi yekuwedzera kusasimba kunounzwa nekupera kwesvondo. Iyo purofiti uye kurasikirwa kwekutengesa yakafara span sarudzo ndeye 2 Yuan / mugove.
Zvisarudzo zveshuga

Mutengo wechibvumirano chikuru cheJanuary chemangwana shuga chena wakawira musi waSeptember 21, uye mutengo wezuva nezuva wakavharwa pa6135 yuan / ton. Nhamba yekutengeserana yeJanuary kontrakiti yaiva 470000, uye nzvimbo yacho yaiva 690000. Nhamba yekutengesa uye nzvimbo yakaramba yakagadzikana.

Nhasi, huwandu hwekutengesa huwandu hwesarudzo dzeshuga hwakanga huri 6700 (unilateral, yakafanana pasi apa), uye nzvimbo yose yaiva 64700. Muganhu unilateral position yeshuga sarudzo yakasunungurwa kubva ku200 kusvika ku2000, uye vhoriyamu yekutengesa uye nzvimbo yesarudzo yakawedzera. zvakanyanya. Parizvino, vhoriyamu yechibvumirano muna Ndira yakaverengera 74% uye chinzvimbo chakaverengera 57%. Huwandu hwemazuva ano hwekutengesa huwandu hweshuga sarudzo PC_ Ratio yakatamira ku 0.66, chinzvimbo PC_ Reshiyo yakaramba iri pa 0.90, uye kuita kweshuga chena sarudzo kwakadzikira zvakare_ Kugona kweratio yekupindura kune manzwiro mashoma.

Parizvino, iyo 60 yemazuva ekare kusagadzikana kweshuga ndeye 11.87%, uye iyo inofungidzirwa kushanduka kweiyo flat value sarudzo muna Ndira yasvika 12.41%. Parizvino, mutsauko uripo pakati pezvinoreva kushanduka uye kushanduka kwenhoroondo yemhando yemhando yepamusoro muna Ndira yakaderedzwa kusvika 0.54%. Iko kusagadzikana kuri kuwedzera, uye njodzi yekuisa sarudzo portfolio iri kuwedzera. Zvinokurudzirwa kubata chinzvimbo chekuisa yakafara span sarudzo (kutengesa sr801p6000 uye sr801c6400) nekuchenjera, uye kukohwa kukosha kwenguva yesarudzo. Nhasi, purofiti uye kurasikirwa kwekutengesa kwakafara span portfolio (sr801p6000 uye sr801c6400) i4.5 yuan / share.
TB

"Scale reduction" guruva rakagadzika, goho remari yechibatiso rakakwira kuChina

Wongororo yemusika:
Treasury bond remangwana rakadzikira pasi zuva rese, rakawanda rakavharwa, uye misikanzwa yanga isiri yakakwirira. Kondirakiti huru yemakore mashanu tf1712 yakavhara 0.07% yakaderera pa97.450 yuan, iine 9179 yakawanda yehuwandu hwekutengesa, 606 isingasviki zuva rekutanga rekutengesa, uye 64582 zvinzvimbo, 164 zvishoma pane yapfuura zuva rekutengesa. Nhamba yose yekutengeserana kwezvibvumirano zvitatu yaiva 9283, nekuderera kwe553, uye nzvimbo yose yezvibvumirano zve65486 yakaderera ne 135. Chibvumirano chikuru chemakore gumi t1712 chakavhara 0.15% kusvika 94.97 yuan, nekudzoka kwe35365, kuwedzera kwe7621, uye kuderera kwemaoko e74 munzvimbo ye75017. Nhamba yose yekutengeserana kwezvibvumirano zvitatu yaiva 35586, kuwedzera kwe7704, uye nzvimbo yose ye76789 zvibvumirano yakaderera ne24.

Kuongorora kwemusika:
Chirevo cheFOMC cheUS Federal Reserve munaGunyana chakaratidza kuti kuderedzwa zvishoma nezvishoma kwakatanga muna Gumiguru gore rino, nepo mubenchmark yemubereko yakaramba isina kuchinjika kubva pa1% kuenda pa1.25%. Zvinotarisirwa kuti mibairo ichasimudzwa zvakare muna 2017, zvichiita kuti misika itye kutya kwekusimbisa mari munguva pfupi. Chibereko cheUS Treasury bond chakakwira zvakanyanya, uye goho remusika wepakati pebhangi mari yechisungo chakakanganiswa nekufambiswa, uye huwandu hwekuwedzera hwakawedzerwa. Zvinotarisirwa kuti bhanga guru renyika reChina richadzikisa mwero webhanga guru renyika muchikamu chechina, asi hazvizokanganiswi nekukwira kwemari pakati pebhanga guru reChina.

Iyo yekutanga toni yekuchengetedza kugadzikana inoramba yakafanana neyakare, uye guta riri kudzikira zuva nezuva: bhanga guru rakaita reverse repurchase mashandiro e40 bhiriyoni kwemazuva manomwe uye 20 bhiriyoni kwemazuva makumi maviri nemasere nemusi weChina, uye bhidhiyo inokunda kufarira. mitengo yaive 2.45% uye 2.75% zvakateerana, izvo zvaive zvakafanana nenguva yekupedzisira. Pazuva rimwe chetero, kwakanga kune 60 bhiriyoni reverse repurchase maturities, izvo zvakagadzirisa zvizere kukura kwemari. Iyo central bank's open market hedging inokura kwemazuva maviri akatevedzana, ichichengetedza kugadzikana kwetoni sepakutanga. Mazhinji einter-bank pledge repo mhindu yakadonha, uye mari yakadzikira zvishoma nezvishoma. Nekudaro, mushure mekushomeka kwemari kwadzikira, pakanga pasati pave neshungu dzekutengeserana mumusika, zvichiratidza kuti mari yemusika yakanga ichiri kungwarira mushure mekutanga kwekuderedzwa kweFed uye kusati kwapera kwekota yeMPa yekuongorora.

Kuda kwakasimba kwemabhondi eCDB, kudiwa kusimba kwekupinza uye kutumira kunze kwenyika mabhondi ebhangi: iyo bhidhiyo yekuhwina goho ye3-gore yakatarwa mubereko wekuwedzera mabhondi eChina Development Bank i4.1970%, iyo yebhidhi yakawanda i3.75, iyo bhidhiyo inokunda goho re7-year yakatarwa mhindu yekuwedzera mabhondi ndeye 4.3486%, uye iyo yakawanda yebhidhiri ndeye 4.03. Iko kuhwina kuhwina goho re3-year fixed interest yokuwedzera bond i4.2801%, bhidhi yakawanda i2.26, 5-year fixed interest yokuwedzera bond i4.3322%, bhidhi yakawanda i2.21, 10-year-fixed interest yokuwedzera bond i4.3664%, bhidha yakawanda iri 2.39. Mhedzisiro yemabhidhi mumusika wekutanga yakakamurwa, uye kuhwina kuhwina kwezvikamu zviviri zveChina Development Bank zvakaderera pane kukosha kweChina National Development Bank, uye kudiwa kwakasimba. Nekudaro, iyo bhidhi yekuhwina goho rematatu-chikamu mabhondi ekunze uye kunze kwenyika bhangi rakawanda kupfuura kuyerwa kwema bond eChina, uye kudiwa hakuna kusimba.

Mazano ekushanda:
US Federal Reserve's scale shrinking boots yakashandiswa zviri pamutemo, uye Federal Reserve yaratidza chimiro che "pedyo negondo uye kure neNjiva". Kunyangwe goho remabhondi emudzimba remari rakakwira nekuda kwekuita kwechikwereti cheUS, kupokana kukuru mumusika wemabhondi kuchiri kudhura. Bhanga guru renyika rakaisa mari yakagadzikana uye isina kwayakarerekera mangwanani-ngwanani. Zvakare, zvakakanganisika nekufanotaura kwehupfumi hweChina mukota yechina, bhanga repakati ringangove risingatevedze iyo yakadyiswa kuti ikwidze mubereko Nguva yekukanganisa yekunze conductive njodzi ishoma. Mazhinji einter-bank pledge repo mhindu yakadonha, uye mari yakadzikira zvishoma nezvishoma. Nekudaro, mushure mekushomeka kwemari kwadzikira, pakanga pasati pave neshungu dzekutengeserana mumusika, zvichiratidza kuti mari yemusika yakanga ichiri kungwarira mushure mekutanga kwekuderedzwa kweFed uye kusati kwapera kwekota yeMPa yekuongorora. Chengetedza kupera kwekota yekutanga chikwereti chakatetepa chekukatyamadza mutongo usina kuchinjika.

Disclaimer: ruzivo rwuri mushumo ino rwakaunganidzwa uye kuongororwa neHuatai ramangwana, ese ari kubva kune yakadhindwa data. Iko kuongororwa kweruzivo kana maonero anoratidzwa mumushumo haaumbe mazano ekudyara. Vanoisa mari vachatakura mutongo wakaitwa nemaonero ari mushumo uye nekurasikirwa kunobvira.